Preseason Rankings
Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#105
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.2#48
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#149
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#67
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 7.0% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 7.0% 1.2%
Average Seed 10.2 9.5 10.9
.500 or above 95.7% 99.4% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 99.2% 98.1%
Conference Champion 61.6% 75.1% 59.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 3.6% 0.8%
First Round1.4% 4.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.7% 2.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 13.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 0.70.1 - 0.7
Quad 1b0.2 - 0.80.3 - 1.6
Quad 20.8 - 1.31.1 - 2.9
Quad 33.5 - 2.14.5 - 5.0
Quad 414.4 - 2.118.9 - 7.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2018 23   @ Miami (FL) L 68-77 14%    
  Nov 20, 2018 274   Marist W 82-72 88%    
  Nov 30, 2018 137   San Francisco W 71-69 56%    
  Dec 01, 2018 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-64 80%    
  Dec 07, 2018 141   Louisiana Tech W 74-72 68%    
  Dec 15, 2018 210   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-66 63%    
  Dec 18, 2018 48   @ Baylor L 68-74 22%    
  Dec 30, 2018 39   Alabama L 70-76 38%    
  Jan 02, 2019 236   SE Louisiana W 74-66 83%    
  Jan 09, 2019 263   @ Nicholls St. W 83-73 72%    
  Jan 12, 2019 328   Northwestern St. W 79-64 94%    
  Jan 16, 2019 292   @ New Orleans W 76-65 75%    
  Jan 19, 2019 330   @ Incarnate Word W 83-67 86%    
  Jan 23, 2019 230   Abilene Christian W 77-69 82%    
  Jan 30, 2019 303   Central Arkansas W 85-73 90%    
  Feb 02, 2019 258   @ Sam Houston St. W 76-66 70%    
  Feb 06, 2019 312   @ Houston Baptist W 87-74 79%    
  Feb 09, 2019 227   Lamar W 76-68 81%    
  Feb 13, 2019 304   McNeese St. W 81-69 89%    
  Feb 16, 2019 328   @ Northwestern St. W 79-64 84%    
  Feb 20, 2019 309   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77-64 90%    
  Feb 23, 2019 330   Incarnate Word W 83-67 94%    
  Feb 27, 2019 303   @ Central Arkansas W 85-73 77%    
  Mar 02, 2019 227   @ Lamar W 76-68 66%    
  Mar 05, 2019 230   @ Abilene Christian W 77-69 66%    
  Mar 09, 2019 258   Sam Houston St. W 76-66 84%    
Projected Record 18.9 - 7.1 14.6 - 3.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.8 12.6 16.1 15.6 9.4 61.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.6 6.1 3.7 0.9 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.7 3.1 1.1 0.1 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 5.0 6.8 10.0 13.0 16.5 17.0 15.6 9.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 9.4    9.4
17-1 99.8% 15.6    15.1 0.5
16-2 94.5% 16.1    13.7 2.4 0.1
15-3 76.6% 12.6    8.3 3.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 44.7% 5.8    2.6 2.5 0.6 0.1
13-5 18.6% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 61.6% 61.6 49.6 10.1 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 9.4% 17.0% 17.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 7.8 17.0%
17-1 15.6% 2.0% 2.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 15.3 2.0%
16-2 17.0% 0.2% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.0 0.2%
15-3 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 16.5 0.1%
14-4 13.0% 13.0
13-5 10.0% 10.0
12-6 6.8% 6.8
11-7 5.0% 5.0
10-8 3.0% 3.0
9-9 1.8% 1.8
8-10 0.9% 0.9
7-11 0.4% 0.4
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 98.1 1.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 94.3% 6.3 4.7 5.3 10.2 19.0 10.8 19.0 4.8 14.0 5.7 0.7 0.2